poker.yoga

66 from SB with 12bb — push or fold?

The answer

Push

all-in

The math: BB calls only TT+/AK (under 10% of hands) → over 90% immediate folds; the tools/icm model keeps the shove +$EV after bubble risk.

Why

The 3bb stack makes both medium stacks cautious. That tightens your shove somewhat, but it also tightens the covering Big Blind's call dramatically: in this stated model BB continues only with TT+/AK. Pocket sixes therefore win the 3,000 in blinds uncontested more than nine times in ten and retain equity when called. ICM is not a one-way instruction to wait; pressure on the caller creates profitable fold equity. Push.

The spot

POT · 3,000
preflop
Folded to you, bubble, 4 left
6
6
SB
1,000 / 2,000 · 12bb
Your seat
SB
Stakes and stacks
1,000 / 2,000 · 12bb
Your hand
6♠ 6♦
Board
Preflop — no board yet
Pot
POT · 3,000
Action on you
Folded to you, bubble, 4 left

Every option

  • Foldwait for the short stack

    Why not: Folding protects your stack, but it gives up enormous fold equity: under this explicit ICM model the covering Big Blind calls only TT+/AK, so the shove succeeds uncontested more than nine times in ten.

  • Pushall-inCorrect

The idea behind it

ICM tightens calling ranges more than shoving ranges because a caller cannot win by fold equity. On a bubble, a covering stack may call extremely tightly, allowing the shover to pressure it. Always state stacks, payouts and the assumed call range before teaching a marginal push/fold result.

Concept: ICM pressure works both ways

Terms in this spot

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The trainer deals this hand with hints, grading and spaced repetition — and randomized variations of it once you have seen it.

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