poker.yoga

87s on J♥ T♦ 3♣ facing a bet — fold, call or raise?

The answer

Fold

give up the hand

The math: Nominal gutshot = 4 nines → ≈8% next card; price = 33%. K-Q makes a higher straight on a nine.

Why

Even with four clean outs, this call would need about $65 of collectible payoff after a hit to break even. Some nines are worse: K-Q makes the higher straight, so that payoff can reverse direction. Deep stacks do not rescue a draw whose implied payoff is both too large and unreliable.

The spot

Villain · CO
bets $20 · pot
POT · $20
J
T
3
8
7
BB
$1 / $2 · 100bb
Your seat
BB
Stakes and stacks
$1 / $2 · 100bb
Your hand
8♠ 7♠
Board
J♥ T♦ 3♣
Pot
POT · $20
Action on you
CO bets $20 · pot

Every option

  • Foldgive up the handCorrect

  • Callcall $20

    Why not: Four nominal nines are far short of the price, and K-Q can make a higher straight when a nine lands.

  • Raisebluff-raise

    2.5x · $50 · all-in

    Why not: A partly dominated four-out draw has too little equity to turn into a large bluff.

The idea behind it

Nominal outs are not automatically clean. Before counting a card, ask whether it can complete a higher straight or flush for the range betting into you.

Concept: Outs vs price

Terms in this spot

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The trainer deals this hand with hints, grading and spaced repetition — and randomized variations of it once you have seen it.

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