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AJs on J♠ 8♥ 4♦ facing a bet — fold, call or raise?

The answer

Call

keep them in

The math: Top pair, top kicker with a backdoor flush — too strong to fold to a small c-bet, but not strong enough to raise for value against an uncapped 3-bettor.

Why

Top pair top kicker is a clear continue against a ⅓-pot c-bet: folding is far too tight against a range that bets its whole air-plus-value distribution. But raising is wrong too — you fold out the worse hands you dominate and get action mainly from overpairs and better, since the button's 3-bet range is uncapped. Just call, keep their bluffs and worse jacks in, and re-evaluate on the turn. The backdoor flush and top kicker give you plenty of equity to defend from out of position. The solver calls ~99% of the time.

The spot

Villain · BTN
bets $13
POT · $40
J
8
4
A
J
CO
$1 / $2 · 100bb
Your seat
CO
Stakes and stacks
$1 / $2 · 100bb
Your hand
A♥ J♥
Board
J♠ 8♥ 4♦
Pot
POT · $40
Action on you
BTN bets $13

Every option

  • Foldlet it go

    Why not: Folding top pair top kicker is far too tight against a small c-bet from a range that bets all its air plus value — you're ahead of most of what's betting and hold a backdoor flush on top.

  • Callkeep them inCorrect

  • Raiseraise for value

    3x · $39 · all-in

    Why not: Raising folds out the worse hands you dominate and gets action mainly from the overpairs (QQ+, AA) and better that have you beat — the button's 3-bet range is uncapped. Calling keeps their bluffs and worse jacks in and controls the pot out of position.

The idea behind it

Against a small c-bet from an uncapped 3-bettor, top pair top kicker calls rather than raises: raising folds out worse and is called by better, while calling keeps the bluffs in and controls the pot out of position.

Concept: Strong bluff-catcher

Terms in this spot

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